Crime will increase.

Police chiefs predict a 4 to 6% rise in crime following the UK Government’s sentencing reforms in England and Wales. These reforms favour community sentences over short jail terms and permit earlier releases. Jason Devonport from the National Police Chiefs’ Council cautioned about increased crime due to the reforms, stating, “We expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending.” Gavin Stephens, NPCC chair, supports the reforms, noting potential long-term benefits. However, Ellie Butt from Refuge expressed concerns about domestic abuse offenders. The shadow home secretary, Chris Philp, criticised Labour’s approach, warning it could lead to more crime. The House of Lords report highlighted the need for better electronic monitoring strategies.